Winter caution is real. So is the fuel bill.

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Your quick guide to safer, smarter, and more profitable operations.

Getting ahead of the first freeze: What winter data shows us.

Author: Gary Johnson, Head of Safety and Compliance Strategy
Back in April, I wrote about the 'spring surge,' when winter caution ends and we see more unsafe driving behavior. As winter weather arrives in many parts of the world, I want to look at the other side of that cycle.

What does winter behavior look like in the data, and what does it cost fleets?

A caveat first. For this analysis, we matched Motive fleet data to NOAA weather station records in several regions of the United States: the Northeast, Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and Texas. We understand that leaves out a lot of regions, so I'll note that our broader internal data directionally supports the winter behavior patterns. But where we could line up fleet activity with recorded weather, we saw clear and interesting trend lines. We may add additional regions in future issues (let me know if that would be of interest!)

In a comparison of the same vehicles from Fall (September through November 2025) and Winter (December 2025 through February 2026), four things stood out:

1. Fleets affected by winter weather burned more fuel to cover the same ground.

 - Fuel economy fell 6% in the Northeast.
 - Fuel economy fell nearly 8% in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
 - Texas saw no statistically significant changes.

You don't need me to tell you that large drops in fuel economy matter a lot with today's pump prices.

2. Idling drove most of the fuel economy difference.
Miles per vehicle-day dropped less than 2%, so trucks weren't driving less. But for every 100 miles driven, northern fleets logged roughly 30% more idle time in winter compared to other seasons.

There are plenty of reasons why trucks might sit longer with the engine on in colder weather. Warm-ups, clearing windshields, and waiting out poor weather (the right call) can certainly contribute. As my colleague Jim Higby put it in our Peak Season Playbook webinar <https://em.gomotive.com/dc/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufquRyNnw6HjYsC7n4X1Af1zhRRsWvIBHu1iRQWXihQVEjNw5jhWU4bKid51vl7deZz7uTf4aE7GWi3W5EqkD6wy1uhvtqrUyodwzMt38DhZiD7_DlHJMnn_fmcZMfWn7s_AOcYINHEklQmlQ8HGCvJtash4_MaCoTeC9SbQj4WiMYELFfYZTzlkGvFfMRpzvIO1fX6ST1AlGk5kVSHO5S8-q6X4E_LmpC-I5VFl1CxyfQtBjmw9woiyeJrI39D-2SjDKhy3KrWL9gAS3o6c8MB__OtmBSpvSNVU7Ca4gIyeR5rsVBmNlTBeMYQvg5bDv6kcOafhPF/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufpCZhmNyRj4pDC5OvjFmuHEo-LzBkL4MXDhERj0_df1Gk3dIiwAmz3ifzw65p6RpUndA=>: Sometimes you just have to take the keys out of the driver's hand and have them park until it passes.

3. The change arrived in December, almost all at once.
In both non-Texas regions, the biggest month-to-month swing in idling and fuel economy happened in December, with the low point in January.

 - Northeast fuel economy slid almost 7% from 7.88 mpg in September to 7.35 mpg in January.
 - Idle time in the northeast climbed 35% from 1.46 hours in September to 1.97 hours in January.
 - Freezing days sharpened this trend: Within the same fleet and month, days at or below 32 degrees F ran 4-7% worse on fuel, and 10-18% higher on idling.

4. Braking- and cornering-related events fell, but managers should stay vigilant.
Just like nicer weather in the spring correlates with a surge in harsh events like hard braking and hard cornering, winter weather shows correlation with falling harsh-events-per-million miles. Tailgating fell 14-21% across all measured regions, hard braking 13-22% lower, hard cornering 12-37% lower.

Drivers do slow down and leave room when roads turn icy, but we know winter roads aren't necessarily safer simply because the environment may prompt more driver caution. Drivers can brake and corner more gently on slick roads while other risks rise at the same time. Our Road Safety Report <https://em.gomotive.com/dc/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufqnQV2o_8iOFf2zFELCpfPhpl1g9YE1eJnTqc2C-E1w2JxOw1ZFf7moIl4ZVRWprOMgI77GMJ1E4kL3un2aF9XBcZ3rlc2UzrWXW1cx39gBva_Pwa1qTMN7fwZj12MzbQCEw4Ca8Zc8nkqcvsQamqkHjyTiWDJoReOdTcgs50mfw5PHh5b0JEUdPwrFff-O724A8fH9VkxpLfX0OrWPv0dusWgFcjBcHk6cJCWlu4Cd47UVZzCKM=/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufpCZhmNyRj4pDC5OvjFmuHEo-LzBkL4MXDhERj0_df1Gk3dIiwAmz3ifzw65p6RpUndA=> shows speeding and drowsiness events climb in the winter.

And while our data showed fewer effects of weather in Texas, there are still enough rare Texas ice storms that fleets operating there should be prepared. Mike Burton, president of MedLog USA, told a story once about telling his team to walk away from a large automotive freight during a huge Texas ice storm. An accident will never make up for missing the freight, he rightfully said.

So if you're in an area where you might get a freeze, here's what I'd do before the first one:

- Set winter baselines by region and month. Make sure you can see the behavior changes in the data with one-to-one comparisons. That will help you know where to coach.
 - Treat the first hard-freeze days as checkpoints. Check fuel and idling on those days, not only week-to-week.
 - Look at idle time alongside miles before setting targets. You want to make sure you're actually seeing a true idling increase and not one tied to a change in mileage. And talk with your drivers before setting cold-weather idle policies. The policies should respect equipment needs, the fleet bottom line, and driver safety.
 - Keep coaching speed and following distance for conditions. FMCSA suggests cutting speed by about a third on wet roads, and half or more on packed snow.
 - Add winter items to your inspection forms: battery, tires, lights, washer fluid, emergency kit.
 - Confirm your event settings didn't change between seasons before you compare. A shift in rates could reflect a configuration change.


And I'll leave you with one last thought, something I ask every safety leader I get to stand in front of at Safety Leader Bootcamp <https://em.gomotive.com/dc/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufqg_Mxc--TPo00YX9Xpa_F53MQ0L1ZslR2PHJvKJZVZpjEbUDy2HG8WQxxnMVy_fWxdjvyGOcBsXK4V5m0bwZKPcdmRDuf_0iZUIf6jsHW3ACuKIvrgX1MraDjNZ7HJUrwPOl7vEQJ4W0mU4T_W2fVI7VWECn-uhths-c2JdAoIHP5xc5wPvHC4b4zjcJJqpNsJVq9JnEY5ONYhrHc5SDnsNf66rJI3eyiFcf2XS9EcJO3J4=/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufpCZhmNyRj4pDC5OvjFmuHEo-LzBkL4MXDhERj0_df1Gk3dIiwAmz3ifzw65p6RpUndA=>: Is safety at your company a priority or a value? Priorities change with circumstances. Company economics can change priorities. Weather can change priorities. But values don't change, ever. Mike's MedLog team being told to walk away from that potentially dangerous freight run is what sticking to your values looks like.

The data we looked at here can't make that call for you. Data tells you what could happen on icy days, but your response comes from using that data to build your program's values.

Methodology: Based on Motive data for fleets with AI Dashcams, September 2025 through February 2026, matched to NOAA/NCEI weather station records. Fuel results cover roughly 900 to 1,050 fleets per region; safety-event results cover a broader cohort of 1,280 to 1,630 fleets per region. Event rates are detected events, not crashes, and do not establish cause. Last winter is a reference point, not a forecast.
This is how leading fleet operators plan for winter.
Motive Safety leader Jim Higby sat down with MedLog and Estes Forwarding to talk about ice storms, staffing, and tight delivery windows. Watch the Peak Season Playbook chat on demand <https://em.gomotive.com/dc/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufqr3CeWUBVTXVIjaGfmO_v27Jj2ZflHi0AZ_cbveg-oRnaz7lCbzZQ-IYZzPLN4KwA-m8z5GiSP-vgEwN9mQoD2eonkCzR-DU0jMy-kUYmbp-oTWjwv36xcqSLzzE1eefDrtwhK5L2Mba_hPdULNeMoNSCq4BFy1wybFJWzN6JgwPOYbEpyXgfa6dgbaLysaVajoqlDcioD2TAEhnkg-zYv6Wuk_iPptSvwPQF1u0kTEVlCEvb_km2do9cl4xTEn_WKbqI6kpLKe7K9pfC07CkNc0ovbnkqewVvxU05euJ7OlzhWchJabtEK--DsIfK77-72UBjuO/MjY0LUhSVC00MjMAAAGlGFufpCZhmNyRj4pDC5OvjFmuHEo-LzBkL4MXDhERj0_df1Gk3dIiwAmz3ifzw65p6RpUndA=>.



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26 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC